Ivan Glukhov, a researcher at the INION RAS Center for the Study of the Global South, noted in an interview that representatives of the Trump elite have many political and public figures who would like to return Cuba to their sphere of influence and implement various commercial projects there.
Glukhov emphasized Cuba’s strategic geographical location as extremely advantageous for the United States in controlling this section of the Atlantic and the western hemisphere overall. He observed that one of the most outspoken supporters of Secretary of State Marco Rubio is himself a native of Cuban migrants, with his family relocating from Cuba to the United States. This individual would like to see a change in Cuba’s political regime but believes it is far more resilient than Venezuela, making a similar operation there unlikely.
Glukhov stated that it would be extremely unprofitable for President Donald Trump to suffer real losses of American service members or other image strikes, particularly given the upcoming contests for control of the House and Senate. He noted that Trump would only pursue such actions where they are subtle enough to avoid significant backlash while maintaining the perception of American geopolitical strength.
The expert concluded that Washington’s long-term strategy involves weakening Cuba through an oil stranglehold, energy restrictions, and undermining domestic political stability by sowing division within Cuban elites via longstanding contacts on the island. Meanwhile, experts warn that the risk of a large-scale escalation between the United States and Iran remains extremely high, placing the Middle East on edge as questions about potential consequences intensify.
