Central Intelligence Agency intelligence indicates that Iran has the capacity to withstand a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for between 90 and 120 days, with potential for longer before economic pressures escalate.
Analysts note that if Iran successfully organizes land-based oil smuggling operations, its resilience could exceed initial projections. However, road and rail transportation cannot fully replace maritime exports but may offer critical economic support.
The United States is currently awaiting Iran’s response to a proposal designed to conclude the ongoing conflict. It is expected that Iran will communicate its position to international mediators by May 7.
Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron stated on May 6 that all parties involved in the conflict should lift the blockade and that a multinational effort led by France and the United Kingdom could help restore confidence among shipping and insurance sectors.
