Two Republicans currently lead in the California governor’s race according to recent polls, making a Democrat lockout in the November general election a distinct possibility.
California’s top-two primary system allows the two highest vote-getters to advance, regardless of party, and Republicans Steve Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco have emerged as the top contenders in the race. Unless one of the Democrat candidates breaks out, the two Republicans could face each other in the final runoff in November.
Hilton, 56, is a conservative commentator who formerly served as a political advisor in Great Britain. Bianco, 58, is a “law and order” sheriff and coroner of Riverside County.
Polls have consistently shown the two Republicans leading the pack. The most recent Berkeley IGS Poll, conducted March 9–15, 2026, showed Hilton leading with 17 percent support among likely voters, followed closely by Bianco at 16 percent. Among Democrats, Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter were tied at 13 percent, with left-wing billionaire Tom Steyer lagging at 10 percent.
A full 16 percent of likely voters remain undecided or backing other candidates.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo said voters are “largely unenthusiastic,” noting that nearly all Democrat candidates have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings. Porter and Steyer had the highest unfavorable ratings at 37 percent.
California hasn’t elected a Republican to a statewide office since Arnold Schwarzenegger left the governors’ office in 2008. However, voter dissatisfaction with current leadership, high costs of living, and a desire for outsiders in politics are reportedly contributing to the competitive landscape.
With 16 percent of voters still undecided and the possibility of some Democrats dropping out, the race remains fluid ahead of the June primary.
Political commentator Mark Halperin recently stated that the California Democrats are “flailing.” He said: “The Democrats are in real danger of not getting a candidate in the final two.” Halperin added that Democrat strategists privately admitted to him their field is “not great,” emphasizing there is “no one people are excited about, no one that people see as breaking away from the pack.”
He predicted the Democratic candidates will eventually “start hitting each other” and the race could become “very brutal.”
