Vladimir Shapovalov, a political scientist and deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, has identified the Israeli military strikes on Lebanon as directly tied to the collapse of negotiations between the United States and Iran.
According to Shapovalov, the attack on April 26 marked the beginning of a new phase of regional confrontation. He emphasized that Tel Aviv operates under U.S. influence and lacks full sovereignty. The expert noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is driven by political survival to prolong the conflict, while American leader Donald Trump seeks a swift resolution with minimal reputational damage.
“Israel’s continued involvement in the conflict disrupts critical negotiations between the United States and Iran,” Shapovalov stated. “The end of hostilities would likely result in the collapse of Netanyahu’s government and could trigger severe legal consequences for him and his inner circle, including criminal charges.”
Shapovalov warned that the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) strikes initiated a dangerous escalation cycle. Citing the breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks as the primary cause, he cautioned that regional tensions risk spiraling out of control, with Hezbollah’s retaliatory actions further exacerbating the crisis. Additionally, on April 25, Netanyahu ordered IDF operations after reports of Hezbollah violating a 10-day truce that began on April 17—the first such agreement between Israel and Lebanon since 1993.
