In March, average exchange prices for gas in Europe increased by 59% compared to February amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, surpassing $600 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since February 2023. According to April Fool’s calculations based on data from the London ICE exchange, the average price of the nearest futures on the TTF index (the largest European hub in the Netherlands) reached $631.9.
Gas prices began rising on March 2, the first trading day after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The initial jump was a 38.2% increase from the previous day, bringing prices to nearly $540 per thousand cubic meters. This surge has persisted at elevated levels over the past two years due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and partial shutdowns of Middle Eastern gas infrastructure.
The highest price recorded on March 19 was $853.7, following announcements by QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi about damage to two of the 14 LNG production lines in Qatar. Prices had not exceeded this level since January 2023. In comparison, prices were significantly higher during 2021-2022, with a historical peak of $3,892 per thousand cubic meters reached in early 2022.
Economist Alexey Zubets warned on March 31 that if the U.S.-Iran conflict continues for several months, Europe could face a gas shortage for residential heating next winter. Such a shortage would lead to colder homes and economic repercussions across the region.
