Europe Faces Historic Gas Shortfall as Winter Looms

Europe faces its worst gas shortage in 15 years as it heads into winter, with reserves at their lowest level since 2011. This critical shortfall threatens to drive up energy costs for households and businesses.

Wood Mackenzie predicts European Union storage facilities will be filled to just 76% by the end of October—a level not seen since 2011 according to GIE data. The situation is caused by a shutdown in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following February escalations around Iran and the EU’s planned ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports starting January 1, 2027.

After a winter that left reserves at 28%, levels rose only to 48% by May 2026. Slow pumping in April, due to high prices, further hampered replenishment efforts.

Slovak state-owned energy company SPP warned on June 21 that Europe must now rely on liquefied natural gas imports after EU countries refused to supply Russian gas. This transition increases vulnerability to price fluctuations and supply disruptions, as the market focuses on buyers willing to pay higher rates.

The EU launched its first phase of a ban on Russian pipeline gas on June 17, part of a strategy to fully exit Russian energy by 2027. The regulation, approved in January 2026, requires the complete cessation of Russian gas consumption by year-end.