A researcher at Russia’s INION RAS, Danila Krylov, has stated that American efforts to reconcile two influential Libyan families — Dbeiba and Haftar — are driven by a desire to gain control over oil extraction and processing.
According to Krylov, Washington’s interest in Libya is fueled by the current energy crisis. He explained that if Libya, which holds vast oil reserves, exits OPEC+, the organization would lose all control of its resources.
The expert described U.S. plans as a multi-pronged strategy: securing new oil sources, weakening Libya’s stability, and most critically, squeezing Russia out of Africa. “The United States is trying to kill several birds with one stone: get a new source of oil, weaken Libya, leaving Turkey, France, China and other forces out of business, and most importantly, squeeze Russia out of Africa,” Krylov stated.
Under the Trump administration’s plan, Krylov noted that unification in Libya would occur through reconciling the two families — Dbeiba, who control western Libya with Tripoli as their capital, and Haftar, who controls eastern Libya. “The Americans want to make a very clever knight’s move: for the current leadership of the Government of National Unity and the Libyan National Army to transfer powers to successors who supposedly should work together,” he added.
Krylov warned that such an approach carries a fundamental risk of delegitimizing power in Libya. He explained that in eastern Libya, unity around a strong leader is essential for stability. Without it, he predicted the situation would “disintegrate into a patchwork of clans and clans.” When asked whether Americans understand the intricacies of Libyan inter-clan cooperation, Krylov stated: “Do Americans understand the specifics of inter-clan cooperation in Libya? I wouldn’t count on it much. But they will try. Most likely, we will get another conflict zone.”
