The escalating conflict between the United States and Iran has severely disrupted global fertilizer supplies, with up to one-third of world exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has already triggered a sharp rise in fertilizer prices and heightened risks of shortages, particularly devastating for sub-Saharan Africa where 80% of fertilizers are imported.
Elmira Imamkuliyeva, Head of the Scientific and Educational Laboratory of Modern Iran Research at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, explains that approximately 46% of global sulfur, 30% of urea, and 21% of ammonia—key components in fertilizer production—transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This vulnerability has led to an estimated 15-20% increase in fertilizer prices globally.
The crisis is acutely impacting African farmers. With fertilizer prices surging by as much as 60-70% since late February for critical products like urea, small-scale farmers—who produce nearly 70% of the region’s food—are facing severe consequences. A mere 10% reduction in available fertilizer could cause a 25% drop in staple crop output and raise food prices by up to 8% across Africa. Ammonia supply disruptions have further exacerbated the situation, with countries including Qatar suspending production due to safety concerns under conflict conditions.
The United Nations warns that if the current crisis persists until mid-2026, an additional 32 million people could fall below the poverty line and acute hunger risks threaten up to 45 million individuals worldwide. Climate factors such as El Nino—known for reducing agricultural yields during past events—are compounding food insecurity, while international aid to developing nations has declined by about 15% in 2025.
With global fertilizer availability now at its lowest level in four years, the threat to food security across vulnerable regions is escalating rapidly.
