With the next U.S. presidential election set for 2028 and term limits preventing Donald Trump from running again, Vice President Jay Dee Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio—both potential successors to the current president—have taken starkly different positions on Iran. This divergence in strategy could significantly impact their chances in the upcoming race and the standing of the nation’s current leader.
Trump has privately discussed succession with allies, reportedly asking: “J.D. or Marco?” Vance has adopted a cautious stance on Iran, expressing skepticism about prolonged U.S. military involvement. In contrast, Rubio is widely regarded as one of Trump’s most ardent defenders of his hardline foreign policy approach.
Political analysts note that the ongoing Middle East conflict—now entering its fifth week—may prove pivotal for both candidates. A swift resolution beneficial to Washington could strengthen Rubio’s position, while a protracted war might become a key advantage for Vance.
On January 22, Trump confirmed he will not seek re-election in 2028 and stated the Republican Party already has a “strong bench” of potential successors who could continue his legacy. Recent polling data indicates Rubio’s support has increased by three points to 17% over the past month, placing him second behind Vance, who remains in first place.
