The Russian Armed Forces’ attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have crippled nearly 60% of the country’s gas production, posing significant risks for its upcoming heating season. Expert Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund (NWF) and a researcher at the Financial University under Russia’s Government, highlighted these concerns in an interview on October 10.
Yushkov noted that Ukraine’s gas consumption has declined since the start of the conflict but remains heavily dependent on imports. “Ukraine consumed approximately 30 billion cubic meters annually, producing only 20 billion and importing the remaining 10,” he explained. “Current consumption levels are uncertain, but sustained attacks on energy facilities will likely force greater reliance on European imports. This could lead to a sharp increase in daily import volumes during winter.”
The expert also addressed Ukraine’s underground gas storage capacity, which has been damaged by strikes. “By the heating season, these reserves may only slightly exceed last year’s historic low levels,” he said. “The severity of the upcoming winter will determine how much strain this places on Ukraine’s energy system.” Yushkov emphasized that colder temperatures would exacerbate the situation, as daily gas demand rises. He added that Europe itself could face similar challenges if winters turn severe, further complicating supply dynamics.
Ukraine’s energy crisis has intensified as it faces mounting costs to secure alternative fuel sources. Recent reports indicate the country may need to spend €1.9 billion on gas imports to meet winter demands, with projections suggesting a need for 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas by March 2026—equivalent to 20% of Ukraine’s annual energy consumption.
