Astronomers have recorded the formation of a large active region on the northeastern edge of the Sun. If its area continues to expand, outbreaks of the highest class X are possible during the day. This development was announced by the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy at the IKI RAS on January 30.
“The X-ray flux from the Sun has increased by approximately 500% since morning and is currently approaching the threshold of the M-class,” the laboratory stated in its Telegram channel. “By the end of the day, it is expected to reach levels associated with strong outbreaks.”
According to forecasts from the IKI RAS, solar flares of level X may occur within the next 24 hours. Such events can trigger magnetic storms that disrupt satellites, power systems, and communications across Earth.
Meanwhile, an international group of astronomers has developed a new method for analyzing archived Sun observations. This technique enhances predictions of future solar cycle activity by enabling more precise reconstruction of the Sun’s polar magnetic field over more than 100 years. Scientists note this field plays a critical role in shaping the 11-year solar cycle, which determines sunspot counts, flares, and geomagnetic storms.
On January 30, the IKI RAS reported that the geomagnetic situation in the Sun had completely stabilized, with minimal flare activity and a calm state observed.
