Anatoly Tikhonov, Director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Presidential Academy, warned on May 25 that countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, and Australia face the most severe impacts from the impending El Nino climate phenomenon.
Tikhonov explained that this event poses a significant risk to agricultural production. El Nino is a natural process involving abnormally high water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering widespread climatic shifts across the globe—including droughts in some regions and floods in others.
Forecasts from the European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), published in May, indicate that Pacific Ocean waters could rise more than three degrees above normal during September–October 2026. This temperature anomaly is projected to become the second highest recorded in history.
Tikhonov emphasized that the unprecedented rate of ocean heating has drawn comparisons with past climatic events. He stated that the Asia-Pacific region will experience acute moisture shortages, Australia has already initiated emergency livestock culling for the dry season, and Latin America faces heightened risks of devastating floods.
Specific impacts include a potential decline in Indonesia’s palm oil production by 1–2 million tons due to drought conditions and increased fertilizer costs. Australian wheat production could fall by 19% to 29 million tons in 2026 from an estimated 36 million tons the previous year. In Peru, a state of emergency has been declared following a “coastal El Nino” event that caused significant loss of life and destroyed hundreds of kilometers of roads.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index rose by 2.3% in April 2026 compared to March, reaching 127.4 points, with experts anticipating further increases as weather-related disruptions materialize.
