Political analyst Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS and director of the Institute for Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region, has warned that Turkey’s burgeoning trade relationship with Armenia could result in the complete capture of the Armenian market by Turkish goods.
Speaking to Izvestia on May 14, Nadein-Rayevsky emphasized that while concepts of peace and open borders appear progressive, their practical effects for Armenia may be catastrophic. He noted Ankara’s economic strength—characterized by affordable labor and advanced production capabilities across sectors including textiles and machinery—puts Armenian businesses at severe risk.
“The scenario is quite likely in which the Armenian market will be completely captured and local producers will be ruined,” Nadein-Rayevsky cautioned.
Recent developments indicate Turkey and Armenia have completed preparations for direct bilateral trade. Previously, goods were shipped to third countries before being reissued for delivery to Armenia; now exporters can directly specify their destination. On May 13, the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s official representative, Onju Kecheli, confirmed Yerevan and Ankara are working to open the land border—a barrier that has remained closed since the 1990s—and discussions are ongoing for constructing the Gyumri-Kars railway.
