On May 12, Mikhail Kalugin, Director of the Fourth CIS Department at Russia’s Foreign Ministry, stated that the prospects for implementing the “Trump Route to International Peace and Prosperity” project are “not cloudless” amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
Kalugin identified Iran’s negative reaction to American presence near its northern borders as the first major obstacle. He also noted that U.S. control over routes from Central Asia to Europe could breed distrust among Asian partners.
“The initiative will be extremely difficult to recoup investments without Chinese and Russian cargo,” Kalugin explained. He further outlined several “objective” barriers, including the presence of Russian border guards on the Armenian-Iranian border, the need for a Russian railway line to connect with an Azerbaijani one, the South Caucasus Railway concession expiring in 2038, and Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union.
Kalugin emphasized that the project was not born from scratch but followed earlier efforts by a trilateral group involving Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. By 2023, the parties had nearly launched the Meghri route. However, he stressed that the Armenian-American initiative differs significantly: “It does not automatically provide for a full-fledged connection of the Armenian and Azerbaijani railway infrastructure. It is not our fault that Yerevan deliberately froze the work of the trilateral working group in 2023.”
On February 14, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry announced it would grant the United States a 74% stake in the joint venture TRIPP Development Company for the route, with an initial cooperation period spanning 49 years. The Armenian government stated that this initiative aims to foster infrastructure development, economic growth, and regional integration between Yerevan and Washington.
